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year and o。。en quarterly。 At that review a further quarter or half year can be
added to the budget to maintain a one…year budget horizon。 This is known
as a ‘rolling quarterly （half yearly） budget’。
Budget guidelines
Budgets should adhere to the following general principles：
。 The budget must be based on realistic but challenging goals。 Those goals
are arrived at by both a top…down ‘aspiration’ of senior management
and a bo。。om…up forecast of what the department concerned sees as
possible。
。 The budget should be prepared by those responsible for delivering the
results – the salespeople should prepare the sales budget and the production
people the production budget。 Senior managers must maintain
the munication process so that everyone knows what other parties
are planning for。
。 Agreement to the budget should be explicit。 During the budgeting
process； several versions of a particular budget should be discussed。
For example； the boss may want a sales figure of ￡2 million； but the
sales team’s initial forecast is for ￡1。75 million。
。 A。。er some debate； ￡1。9 million may be the figure agreed upon。 Once
a figure is agreed； a virtual contract exists that declares a mitment
from employees to achieve the target and mitments from the
employer to be satisfied with the target and to supply resources in
order to achieve it。 It makes sense for this contract to be in writing。
。 The budget needs to be finalized at least a month before the start of the
year and not weeks or months into the year。
。 The budget should undergo fundamental reviews periodically throughout
the year to make sure all the basic assumptions that underpin it still
hold good。
。 Accurate information to review performance against budgets should
be available 7 to 10 working days before the month’s end。
Variance analysis
Explaining variances is also an MBA…type task so performance needs to be
carefully monitored and pared against the budget as the year proceeds；
and corrective action must be taken where necessary。 This has to be done on
a monthly basis （or using shorter time intervals if required）； showing both
the pany’s performance during the month in question and throughout
the year so far。
Finance 79
Looking at Table 2。4； we can see at a glance that the business is behind
on sales for this month； but ahead on the yearly target。 The convention is to
put all unfavourable variations in brackets。 Hence； a higher…than…budgeted
sales figure does not have brackets； while a higher materials cost does。 We
can also see that； while profit is running ahead of budget； the profit margin
is slightly behind （–0。30 per cent）。
Table 2。4 The fixed budget
Heading Month Year to date
Budget Actual Variance Budget Actual Variance
Sales 805* 753 （52） 6；358 7；314 956
Materials 627 567 60 4；942 5；704 （762）
Materials
margin
178 186 8 1；416 1；610 194
Direct costs 74 79 （5） 595 689 （94）
Gross profit 104 107 3 820 921 101
Percentage 12。92 14。21 1。29 12。90 12。60 （0。30）
* Figures indicate thousands of pounds
This is partly because other direct costs； such as labour and distribution in
this example； are running well ahead of budget。
Flexing the budget
A budget is based on a particular set of sales goals； few of which are likely
to be exactly met in practice。 Table 2。4 shows a pany that has used
￡762；000 more materials than budgeted。 As more has been sold； this is
hardly surprising。 The way to manage this situation is to flex the budget
to show what； given the sales that actually occurred； would be expected
to happen to expenses。 Applying the budget ratios to the actual data does
this。 For example； materials were planned to be 22。11 per cent of sales in
the budget。 By applying that to the actual month’s sales； a materials cost of
￡587；000 is arrived at。
Looking at the flexed budget in Table 2。5； we can see that the pany
has spent ￡19；000 more than expected on the material given the level of
sales actually achieved； rather than the ￡762；000 overspend shown in the
fixed budget。
The same principle holds for other direct costs； which appear to be running
￡94；000 over budget for the year。 When we take into account the extra
sales shown in the flexed budget； we can see that the pany has actually
80 The Thirty…Day MBA
spent ￡4；000 over budget on direct costs。 While this is serious； it is not as
serious as the fixed budget suggests。
The flexed budget allows you to concentrate your efforts on dealing with
true variances in performance。
The following website； SCORE （score 》 Business Tools 》
Template Gallery 》 Sales Forecast）； has a downloadable Excel spreadsheet
from which you can make sales and cost projections on a trial and error
basis。 Once you are satisfied with your projection； use the profit and loss
projection （score 》 Business Tools 》 Template Gallery 》 Profit and
Loss Projection （3 Years）） to plete your budget。
Seasonality and trends
The figures shown for each period of the budget are not the same。 For
example； a sales budget of ￡1。2 million for the year does not translate to
￡100；000 a month。 The exact figure depends on two factors：
。 The projected trend may forecast that； while sales at the start of the year
are ￡80；000 a month； they will change to ￡120；000 a month by the end of
the year。 The average would be ￡100；000。
。 By virtue of seasonal factors； each month may also be adjusted up or
down from the underlying trend。 You could expect the sales of heating
oil； for example； to peak in the autumn and tail off in the late spring。
See also Chapter 11； Quantitative and qualitative research and analysis； for
more on forecasting。
Table 2。5 The flexed budget
Heading Month Year to date
Budget Actual Variance Budget Actual Variance
Sales 753* 753 – 7；314 7；314 –
Materials 587 567 20 5；685 5；704 （19）
Materials
margin
166 186 20 1；629 1；610 （19）
Direct costs 69 79 （10） 685 689 （4）
Gross profit 97 107 10 944 921 （23）
Percentage 12。92 14。21 1。29 12。90 12。60 （0。30）
* Figures indicate thousands of pounds
Marketing
。 Measuring markets
。 Assessing strengths and weaknesses
。 Understanding customers
。 Segmenting markets
。 The marketing mix
。 Selling
。 Researching markets
Business schools didn’t invent marketing but they certainly ensured its preeminence
as an academic discipline。 Principles of Marketing and Marketing
Management； seminal books on the subject by Philip Kotler （et al） of Kellogg
School of Management at Northwestern University； have been core reading
on management programmes the world over for decades。 The School’s
marketing department has rated at the top in all national and international
ranking surveys conducted during the past 15 years。 ＇You can see Kotler
lecture at this link： anaheim。ed 》 CEO Webcast＇
Marketing is defined as the process that ensures the right products and
services get to the right markets at the right time and at the right price。 The
devil in that sentence lies in the use of the word ‘right’。 The deal has to work
for the customer； because if they don’t want what you have to offer the game
is over before you begin。 You have to offer value and satisfaction； otherwise
people will either choose an apparently superior petitor or； if they do
buy from you and are dissatisfied； they won’t buy again。 Worse still； they
may bad…mouth you to a lot of other people。 For you the marketer； being
right means that there have to be enough people wanting your product or
service to make the venture profitable； and ideally those numbers should
be ge。。ing bigger rather than smaller。
So inevitably marketing is something of a voyage of discovery for both
supplier and consumer； from which both parties learn something and
hopefully improve。 The boundaries of marketing stretch from inside the
3
82 The Thirty…Day MBA
mind of the customer； perhaps uncovering emotions they were themselves
barely aware of； out to the logistic support systems that get the product or
service into customers’ hands。 Each part of the value chain from pany
to consumer has the potential to add value or kill the deal。 For example；
at the heart of the Amazon business proposition are a superlatively
efficient warehousing and delivery system and a simple zero…cost way for
customers to return products they don’t want and get immediate refunds。
These factors are every bit as important as elements of Amazon’s marketing
strategy as are its product range； website structure； Google placement or its
petitive pricing。
Marketing is also a circuitous activity。 As you explore the topics below；
you will see that you need the answers to some questions before you can
move on； and indeed once you have some answers you may have to go
back a step to review an earlier stage。 For example； your opinion as to the
size of the relevant market may be influenced by the results achieved when
you segment the market and assess your petitive position。
GETTING THE MEASURE OF MARKETS
The starting point in marketing is definition of the scope of the market you
are in or are aiming for。 This es from the business objectives； mission
and vision that form the heart of the strategy of the enterprise。 These are
topics covered in Chapter 12 on strategy。 For most MBAs for most of the
time these will be a ‘given’ and as such will not inhibit your ability to apply
the marketing concepts explored in this chapter。 So； for example； if you
are working in； say； Body Shop； McDonald’s； IBM； a Hospital Trust or the
Prison Service； the broad market thrust of your current business will be
self…evident。 Later you may want or need to change strategic direction； but
effective marketing is concerned fundamentally with dealing with a defined
product （service）/market scope。 These concepts apply to any marketing
activity； but you will find that understanding them is made easier by
applying them to the business you are in； or have some appreciation of。
Assessing the relevant market
Much of marketing is concerned with achieving goals such as selling
a specific quantity of a product or service or capturing market share。
MBAs are frequently set the challenging task of measuring the size of
the market。 Now in principle this is not too difficult。 Desk research （see
in ‘Market research’ later in this chapter） will yield a sizeable harvest of
statistics of varying degrees of reliability。 You will be able to discover that
the consumption； say； of bread in Europe is ￡10 billion a year。 But first you
need a definition of bread。 The industry…wide definition of Bakery includes
Marketing 83
sliced and un…sliced bread； rolls； bakery snacks and speciality breads。 It
covers plant…baked products； those that are baked by in…store bakers； and
products sold through cra。。 bakers。
Assessing the relevant market then involves refining global statistics
down to provide the real scope of your market。 If your business operates
only in the UK the market is worth over ￡2。7 billion； equivalent to 12
million loaves a day； one of the largest sectors in Food。 If you are operating
only in the cra。。 bakery segment then the relevant market shrinks to ￡13。5
million； this contracts still further to ￡9。7 million if you are； say； operating
only within the radius of the M25 ring road。
The importance of market share
The relevant market will be shared by various peting businesses in
different proportions。 Typically there will be a market leader； a couple of
market followers and a host of businesses trailing in their wake。 The slice
that each petitor has of a market is its market share。 You will find that
marketing people are fixated on market share； perhaps even more so than
on absolute sales。 That may appear li。。le more than a rational desire to beat
the ‘enemy’ and appear higher in rankings； but it has a much more deepseated
and profound logic。
Back in the 1960s a firm of US management consultants observed a consistent
relationship between the cost of producing an item （or delivering
a service） and the total quantity produced over the life of the product
concerned。 They noticed that total unit costs （labour and materials） fell by
between 20 and 30 per cent for every doubling of the cumulative quantity
produced。 （See Chapter 12 for more on the experience curve effect。）
Tesco
40％
Asda
21％
Morrison/Safeway
15％
Independents
3％
Sainsbury's
21％
Figure 3。1 Market share UK supermarkets June 2008
84 The Thirty…Day MBA
So any pany capturing a sizeable market share will have an implied
cost advantage over any petitor with a smaller market share。 That cost
advantage can then be used to make more profit； lower prices and pete
for an even greater share of the market； or invest in making the product
be。。er and so stealing a march on petitors。
petitive position
It follows that if market share and relative size are important marketing
goals； you need to assess your products’ and services’ positions relative to
the petition in your relevant market。 The techniques most used to carry
out this analysis are SWOT and perceptual mapping。
Strengths； weaknesses； threats and opportunities （SWOT）
Th